Karen treats trading as a process
and manages the process all the time. As far as I can see, her trading process involves
the following elements as discussed in her interviews:
o
A suitable set of strategic trading rules,
o
An advanced trading software platform,
o
A successful trading mindset and psychology,
o
A daily trading routine,
o
A trading number game management,
o
An experienced trading team,
o
A Sufficient amount of time and money for
trading and learning, and
o
Others.
Karen’s daily trading routine
starts from market open hour till the end. The constant watch on the market by
her trading team allows them to react to market changes promptly. Karen’s
trading rules help them staying away from over-trading or over-adjusting. Her
high degree of confidence on the high probability trades enables her of proper
trade actions in the face of market uncertainty.
Karen treats trading as a number’s
game so that she can play it objectively. She enjoys playing the big game all
the time and taking the market challenges as well. There are no feelings
wrapped around her trades or positions, as they are just numbers to her. The
ability to turn emotions and perceived risks into a set of trading numbers and
to focus on the numbers helps traders to decouple themselves from emotions and
irrational trading actions. The emotion and fear are the biggest obstacles in
trading and they take down most traders. The focus on trading numbers takes
away the feeling of heart-ripping during adverse market conditions. As a result
of the application of high probability trades by going far out of the money, a
heavy percentage of Karen’s positions are winners.
Karen had discussed her learning
and trading improvement process. She had more failures than successes in
initial years. She was willing to invest in learning knowledge with a large
amount of money and time that many other people may not be comfortable with.
Her education fee at Investools alone cost over 20K USD. Small traders may have
this limited amount in their trading accounts.
Karen established a tremendous
trading team of about 6 members. 5 of them are experienced retail traders and 1
is an accountant. She encourages different ideas from team members. They
usually will listen to each other, discuss the ideas and agree as a group. From
time to time, they will test water with new ideas using a small amount of
capital. If the new idea is proven to be working, then they don’t hesitate to
apply it in full scale. The selling of weekly option was a good example of this
process of adopting new ideas.
Some traders may get extremely
disturbed if the temporary position loss becomes very big. Karen does not get
emotional about any of her positions. When positions are in danger, she will do
whatever it takes to fix them and make them back to the original profit at the
expiration date as described in Section 6
Trade
Adjustment Rules.
She is not bound by the future direction of market moves, but always reacts to
it if the ITM probability and profit percentage of her positions indicate to
her for adjustments.
Karen suggested traders to look at
the profit and loss numbers of the portfolio but not to focus on the P&L.
This is reflected on her trading team structure as well as there is only one
accountant (vs 5 to 6 traders). With this team, the traders should be able to
focus more on the other important trading numbers. Personally, I think the key numbers
Karen discussed in the interviews can be summarized as the following:
·
ITM probability
o
First factor used to determine if opening,
closing or adjustment is required
·
Prices and trend of the underlying
o
Second factor used to determine if adjustment is
required
·
Stress-tested market crash losses vs net
liquidation value
o
Critical number that indicate how many contracts
to sell
·
Option premium changes and time to expiration
o
Available options for adjustments
Karen stated she is willing to
take losses when necessary and she will keep existing profit in her positions
also. However, there were no examples discussing when to give up positions for
losses (probably after the portfolio margin runs out). It’s worthwhile noting
that Karen did not indicate any rules based on position losses. She did not
mention any direct trade reaction to the amount of loss of a position. Her
trade adjustment rules are based on ITM probability and the current market
trends.
I understand the high probabilities of these strategies and over time being profitable, but the Potential Loss to Buying Power Effect (PL/BPE) ratio on these things are just horrible. At one point in time I was following along with the good folks at tastytrade. I wish they would openly post their P/L from month to month to show how they are truly performing. Same with Karen. It would be nice to have them be open and transparent with their trades to see how they perform week in and week out. I lost a bit of interest with tastytrade when I kept hearing them tout, "Trade Small, Trade Often." That kind of advice sure does get expensive to the Average Joe out here when you take into account commissions and fees. Anyway, I prefer the negative Delta, positive Theta strategies with a PL/BPE < .25. That keeps me stress free when trading month to month.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment.
DeleteI can understand your desire for the track record of option educators. Unfortunately, the industry does not provide that as a requirement for educators. For the hedge fund from Karen's Hope Investments, it has SEC filings. Our discussion group members found it and anyone else can find it as well, since it's public info.
Hope this helps.
Charles
It would be nice to know how her strategy performed in 2008
ReplyDeleteKaren traded 10 to 30 stocks using spreads and iron condors during 2008 to 2009 period with good results. She started trading naked options around 2010.
DeleteHope this helps.
Charles
you mention "Section 6 Trade Adjustment Rules" - is section 6 available anywhere? or does she also just mention it in passing. I sell high probability rut spreads and have done really well the last couple years - BUT the rare occasion when a trade gets in trouble, I still dont have a very good plan for how to handle. I've tried testing rules such as "Buy back when delta on short leg hits 20, or 30" but the loss on the spread is painfully high by then (too late). Or Buy buy when spread loss is 10% of max loss - Many of these when on to expire OTM - (too early). SO, any and all guidance on trade adjustments would be appreciated.
ReplyDelete